{
  "band_limit": "Small-sample empirical bands, not guaranteed future coverage",
  "code_sha256": "a9fdbfe7808545b834b39a8ba9f1dcd28eff365853dde250968b5f8863afdeaa",
  "dataset_type": "synthetic",
  "evaluation": "Rolling one-day holdout, 14 origins; separate horizon study, eight origins per horizon",
  "input_end": "2026-02-25",
  "input_start": "2026-01-01",
  "models": {
    "mean": {
      "coverage": 12,
      "future": [
        {
          "day": 57,
          "lower": 97.57142857142858,
          "predicted": 137.71428571428572,
          "upper": 177.85714285714286
        },
        {
          "day": 58,
          "lower": 97.57142857142858,
          "predicted": 137.71428571428572,
          "upper": 177.85714285714286
        },
        {
          "day": 59,
          "lower": 97.57142857142858,
          "predicted": 137.71428571428572,
          "upper": 177.85714285714286
        },
        {
          "day": 60,
          "lower": 97.57142857142858,
          "predicted": 137.71428571428572,
          "upper": 177.85714285714286
        },
        {
          "day": 61,
          "lower": 97.57142857142858,
          "predicted": 137.71428571428572,
          "upper": 177.85714285714286
        },
        {
          "day": 62,
          "lower": 97.57142857142858,
          "predicted": 137.71428571428572,
          "upper": 177.85714285714286
        },
        {
          "day": 63,
          "lower": 97.57142857142858,
          "predicted": 137.71428571428572,
          "upper": 177.85714285714286
        }
      ],
      "holdout": [
        {
          "actual": 102,
          "day": 43,
          "error": 29.428571428571416,
          "predicted": 131.42857142857142
        },
        {
          "actual": 114,
          "day": 44,
          "error": 18.14285714285714,
          "predicted": 132.14285714285714
        },
        {
          "actual": 126,
          "day": 45,
          "error": 6.857142857142861,
          "predicted": 132.85714285714286
        },
        {
          "actual": 121,
          "day": 46,
          "error": 12.571428571428584,
          "predicted": 133.57142857142858
        },
        {
          "actual": 143,
          "day": 47,
          "error": 10.571428571428584,
          "predicted": 132.42857142857142
        },
        {
          "actual": 177,
          "day": 48,
          "error": 43.85714285714286,
          "predicted": 133.14285714285714
        },
        {
          "actual": 146,
          "day": 49,
          "error": 12.142857142857139,
          "predicted": 133.85714285714286
        },
        {
          "actual": 107,
          "day": 50,
          "error": 25.714285714285722,
          "predicted": 132.71428571428572
        },
        {
          "actual": 119,
          "day": 51,
          "error": 14.428571428571416,
          "predicted": 133.42857142857142
        },
        {
          "actual": 131,
          "day": 52,
          "error": 3.142857142857139,
          "predicted": 134.14285714285714
        },
        {
          "actual": 126,
          "day": 53,
          "error": 8.857142857142861,
          "predicted": 134.85714285714286
        },
        {
          "actual": 148,
          "day": 54,
          "error": 12.428571428571416,
          "predicted": 135.57142857142858
        },
        {
          "actual": 182,
          "day": 55,
          "error": 45.71428571428572,
          "predicted": 136.28571428571428
        },
        {
          "actual": 151,
          "day": 56,
          "error": 14,
          "predicted": 137
        }
      ],
      "metrics": {
        "mae": 18.418367346938776,
        "rmse": 22.33018195714193,
        "wape": 13.62161346313486
      },
      "model": "mean",
      "radius": 40.14285714285714
    },
    "seasonal": {
      "coverage": 14,
      "future": [
        {
          "day": 57,
          "lower": 99,
          "predicted": 107,
          "upper": 115
        },
        {
          "day": 58,
          "lower": 111,
          "predicted": 119,
          "upper": 127
        },
        {
          "day": 59,
          "lower": 123,
          "predicted": 131,
          "upper": 139
        },
        {
          "day": 60,
          "lower": 118,
          "predicted": 126,
          "upper": 134
        },
        {
          "day": 61,
          "lower": 140,
          "predicted": 148,
          "upper": 156
        },
        {
          "day": 62,
          "lower": 174,
          "predicted": 182,
          "upper": 190
        },
        {
          "day": 63,
          "lower": 143,
          "predicted": 151,
          "upper": 159
        }
      ],
      "holdout": [
        {
          "actual": 102,
          "day": 43,
          "error": 5,
          "predicted": 97
        },
        {
          "actual": 114,
          "day": 44,
          "error": 5,
          "predicted": 109
        },
        {
          "actual": 126,
          "day": 45,
          "error": 5,
          "predicted": 121
        },
        {
          "actual": 121,
          "day": 46,
          "error": 8,
          "predicted": 129
        },
        {
          "actual": 143,
          "day": 47,
          "error": 5,
          "predicted": 138
        },
        {
          "actual": 177,
          "day": 48,
          "error": 5,
          "predicted": 172
        },
        {
          "actual": 146,
          "day": 49,
          "error": 8,
          "predicted": 154
        },
        {
          "actual": 107,
          "day": 50,
          "error": 5,
          "predicted": 102
        },
        {
          "actual": 119,
          "day": 51,
          "error": 5,
          "predicted": 114
        },
        {
          "actual": 131,
          "day": 52,
          "error": 5,
          "predicted": 126
        },
        {
          "actual": 126,
          "day": 53,
          "error": 5,
          "predicted": 121
        },
        {
          "actual": 148,
          "day": 54,
          "error": 5,
          "predicted": 143
        },
        {
          "actual": 182,
          "day": 55,
          "error": 5,
          "predicted": 177
        },
        {
          "actual": 151,
          "day": 56,
          "error": 5,
          "predicted": 146
        }
      ],
      "metrics": {
        "mae": 5.428571428571429,
        "rmse": 5.529143565818179,
        "wape": 4.014791336502905
      },
      "model": "seasonal",
      "radius": 8
    }
  },
  "multi_horizon": {
    "mean": [
      {
        "coverage": 7,
        "horizon": 1,
        "mae": 19.91071428571429,
        "origins": 8,
        "pairs": [
          {
            "actual": 102,
            "origin_day": 42,
            "predicted": 131.42857142857142,
            "target_day": 43
          },
          {
            "actual": 114,
            "origin_day": 43,
            "predicted": 132.14285714285714,
            "target_day": 44
          },
          {
            "actual": 126,
            "origin_day": 44,
            "predicted": 132.85714285714286,
            "target_day": 45
          },
          {
            "actual": 121,
            "origin_day": 45,
            "predicted": 133.57142857142858,
            "target_day": 46
          },
          {
            "actual": 143,
            "origin_day": 46,
            "predicted": 132.42857142857142,
            "target_day": 47
          },
          {
            "actual": 177,
            "origin_day": 47,
            "predicted": 133.14285714285714,
            "target_day": 48
          },
          {
            "actual": 146,
            "origin_day": 48,
            "predicted": 133.85714285714286,
            "target_day": 49
          },
          {
            "actual": 107,
            "origin_day": 49,
            "predicted": 132.71428571428572,
            "target_day": 50
          }
        ],
        "radius": 40.14285714285714
      },
      {
        "coverage": 7,
        "horizon": 2,
        "mae": 17.857142857142858,
        "origins": 8,
        "pairs": [
          {
            "actual": 114,
            "origin_day": 42,
            "predicted": 131.42857142857142,
            "target_day": 44
          },
          {
            "actual": 126,
            "origin_day": 43,
            "predicted": 132.14285714285714,
            "target_day": 45
          },
          {
            "actual": 121,
            "origin_day": 44,
            "predicted": 132.85714285714286,
            "target_day": 46
          },
          {
            "actual": 143,
            "origin_day": 45,
            "predicted": 133.57142857142858,
            "target_day": 47
          },
          {
            "actual": 177,
            "origin_day": 46,
            "predicted": 132.42857142857142,
            "target_day": 48
          },
          {
            "actual": 146,
            "origin_day": 47,
            "predicted": 133.14285714285714,
            "target_day": 49
          },
          {
            "actual": 107,
            "origin_day": 48,
            "predicted": 133.85714285714286,
            "target_day": 50
          },
          {
            "actual": 119,
            "origin_day": 49,
            "predicted": 132.71428571428572,
            "target_day": 51
          }
        ],
        "radius": 39
      },
      {
        "coverage": 7,
        "horizon": 3,
        "mae": 15.803571428571427,
        "origins": 8,
        "pairs": [
          {
            "actual": 126,
            "origin_day": 42,
            "predicted": 131.42857142857142,
            "target_day": 45
          },
          {
            "actual": 121,
            "origin_day": 43,
            "predicted": 132.14285714285714,
            "target_day": 46
          },
          {
            "actual": 143,
            "origin_day": 44,
            "predicted": 132.85714285714286,
            "target_day": 47
          },
          {
            "actual": 177,
            "origin_day": 45,
            "predicted": 133.57142857142858,
            "target_day": 48
          },
          {
            "actual": 146,
            "origin_day": 46,
            "predicted": 132.42857142857142,
            "target_day": 49
          },
          {
            "actual": 107,
            "origin_day": 47,
            "predicted": 133.14285714285714,
            "target_day": 50
          },
          {
            "actual": 119,
            "origin_day": 48,
            "predicted": 133.85714285714286,
            "target_day": 51
          },
          {
            "actual": 131,
            "origin_day": 49,
            "predicted": 132.71428571428572,
            "target_day": 52
          }
        ],
        "radius": 39.71428571428571
      },
      {
        "coverage": 7,
        "horizon": 4,
        "mae": 15.874999999999996,
        "origins": 8,
        "pairs": [
          {
            "actual": 121,
            "origin_day": 42,
            "predicted": 131.42857142857142,
            "target_day": 46
          },
          {
            "actual": 143,
            "origin_day": 43,
            "predicted": 132.14285714285714,
            "target_day": 47
          },
          {
            "actual": 177,
            "origin_day": 44,
            "predicted": 132.85714285714286,
            "target_day": 48
          },
          {
            "actual": 146,
            "origin_day": 45,
            "predicted": 133.57142857142858,
            "target_day": 49
          },
          {
            "actual": 107,
            "origin_day": 46,
            "predicted": 132.42857142857142,
            "target_day": 50
          },
          {
            "actual": 119,
            "origin_day": 47,
            "predicted": 133.14285714285714,
            "target_day": 51
          },
          {
            "actual": 131,
            "origin_day": 48,
            "predicted": 133.85714285714286,
            "target_day": 52
          },
          {
            "actual": 126,
            "origin_day": 49,
            "predicted": 132.71428571428572,
            "target_day": 53
          }
        ],
        "radius": 40.42857142857143
      },
      {
        "coverage": 7,
        "horizon": 5,
        "mae": 16.857142857142858,
        "origins": 8,
        "pairs": [
          {
            "actual": 143,
            "origin_day": 42,
            "predicted": 131.42857142857142,
            "target_day": 47
          },
          {
            "actual": 177,
            "origin_day": 43,
            "predicted": 132.14285714285714,
            "target_day": 48
          },
          {
            "actual": 146,
            "origin_day": 44,
            "predicted": 132.85714285714286,
            "target_day": 49
          },
          {
            "actual": 107,
            "origin_day": 45,
            "predicted": 133.57142857142858,
            "target_day": 50
          },
          {
            "actual": 119,
            "origin_day": 46,
            "predicted": 132.42857142857142,
            "target_day": 51
          },
          {
            "actual": 131,
            "origin_day": 47,
            "predicted": 133.14285714285714,
            "target_day": 52
          },
          {
            "actual": 126,
            "origin_day": 48,
            "predicted": 133.85714285714286,
            "target_day": 53
          },
          {
            "actual": 148,
            "origin_day": 49,
            "predicted": 132.71428571428572,
            "target_day": 54
          }
        ],
        "radius": 41.14285714285714
      },
      {
        "coverage": 6,
        "horizon": 6,
        "mae": 21.482142857142858,
        "origins": 8,
        "pairs": [
          {
            "actual": 177,
            "origin_day": 42,
            "predicted": 131.42857142857142,
            "target_day": 48
          },
          {
            "actual": 146,
            "origin_day": 43,
            "predicted": 132.14285714285714,
            "target_day": 49
          },
          {
            "actual": 107,
            "origin_day": 44,
            "predicted": 132.85714285714286,
            "target_day": 50
          },
          {
            "actual": 119,
            "origin_day": 45,
            "predicted": 133.57142857142858,
            "target_day": 51
          },
          {
            "actual": 131,
            "origin_day": 46,
            "predicted": 132.42857142857142,
            "target_day": 52
          },
          {
            "actual": 126,
            "origin_day": 47,
            "predicted": 133.14285714285714,
            "target_day": 53
          },
          {
            "actual": 148,
            "origin_day": 48,
            "predicted": 133.85714285714286,
            "target_day": 54
          },
          {
            "actual": 182,
            "origin_day": 49,
            "predicted": 132.71428571428572,
            "target_day": 55
          }
        ],
        "radius": 43.71428571428572
      },
      {
        "coverage": 7,
        "horizon": 7,
        "mae": 17.982142857142858,
        "origins": 8,
        "pairs": [
          {
            "actual": 146,
            "origin_day": 42,
            "predicted": 131.42857142857142,
            "target_day": 49
          },
          {
            "actual": 107,
            "origin_day": 43,
            "predicted": 132.14285714285714,
            "target_day": 50
          },
          {
            "actual": 119,
            "origin_day": 44,
            "predicted": 132.85714285714286,
            "target_day": 51
          },
          {
            "actual": 131,
            "origin_day": 45,
            "predicted": 133.57142857142858,
            "target_day": 52
          },
          {
            "actual": 126,
            "origin_day": 46,
            "predicted": 132.42857142857142,
            "target_day": 53
          },
          {
            "actual": 148,
            "origin_day": 47,
            "predicted": 133.14285714285714,
            "target_day": 54
          },
          {
            "actual": 182,
            "origin_day": 48,
            "predicted": 133.85714285714286,
            "target_day": 55
          },
          {
            "actual": 151,
            "origin_day": 49,
            "predicted": 132.71428571428572,
            "target_day": 56
          }
        ],
        "radius": 44.42857142857143
      }
    ],
    "seasonal": [
      {
        "coverage": 8,
        "horizon": 1,
        "mae": 5.75,
        "origins": 8,
        "pairs": [
          {
            "actual": 102,
            "origin_day": 42,
            "predicted": 97,
            "target_day": 43
          },
          {
            "actual": 114,
            "origin_day": 43,
            "predicted": 109,
            "target_day": 44
          },
          {
            "actual": 126,
            "origin_day": 44,
            "predicted": 121,
            "target_day": 45
          },
          {
            "actual": 121,
            "origin_day": 45,
            "predicted": 129,
            "target_day": 46
          },
          {
            "actual": 143,
            "origin_day": 46,
            "predicted": 138,
            "target_day": 47
          },
          {
            "actual": 177,
            "origin_day": 47,
            "predicted": 172,
            "target_day": 48
          },
          {
            "actual": 146,
            "origin_day": 48,
            "predicted": 154,
            "target_day": 49
          },
          {
            "actual": 107,
            "origin_day": 49,
            "predicted": 102,
            "target_day": 50
          }
        ],
        "radius": 8
      },
      {
        "coverage": 8,
        "horizon": 2,
        "mae": 5.75,
        "origins": 8,
        "pairs": [
          {
            "actual": 114,
            "origin_day": 42,
            "predicted": 109,
            "target_day": 44
          },
          {
            "actual": 126,
            "origin_day": 43,
            "predicted": 121,
            "target_day": 45
          },
          {
            "actual": 121,
            "origin_day": 44,
            "predicted": 129,
            "target_day": 46
          },
          {
            "actual": 143,
            "origin_day": 45,
            "predicted": 138,
            "target_day": 47
          },
          {
            "actual": 177,
            "origin_day": 46,
            "predicted": 172,
            "target_day": 48
          },
          {
            "actual": 146,
            "origin_day": 47,
            "predicted": 154,
            "target_day": 49
          },
          {
            "actual": 107,
            "origin_day": 48,
            "predicted": 102,
            "target_day": 50
          },
          {
            "actual": 119,
            "origin_day": 49,
            "predicted": 114,
            "target_day": 51
          }
        ],
        "radius": 8
      },
      {
        "coverage": 8,
        "horizon": 3,
        "mae": 5.75,
        "origins": 8,
        "pairs": [
          {
            "actual": 126,
            "origin_day": 42,
            "predicted": 121,
            "target_day": 45
          },
          {
            "actual": 121,
            "origin_day": 43,
            "predicted": 129,
            "target_day": 46
          },
          {
            "actual": 143,
            "origin_day": 44,
            "predicted": 138,
            "target_day": 47
          },
          {
            "actual": 177,
            "origin_day": 45,
            "predicted": 172,
            "target_day": 48
          },
          {
            "actual": 146,
            "origin_day": 46,
            "predicted": 154,
            "target_day": 49
          },
          {
            "actual": 107,
            "origin_day": 47,
            "predicted": 102,
            "target_day": 50
          },
          {
            "actual": 119,
            "origin_day": 48,
            "predicted": 114,
            "target_day": 51
          },
          {
            "actual": 131,
            "origin_day": 49,
            "predicted": 126,
            "target_day": 52
          }
        ],
        "radius": 8
      },
      {
        "coverage": 8,
        "horizon": 4,
        "mae": 5.75,
        "origins": 8,
        "pairs": [
          {
            "actual": 121,
            "origin_day": 42,
            "predicted": 129,
            "target_day": 46
          },
          {
            "actual": 143,
            "origin_day": 43,
            "predicted": 138,
            "target_day": 47
          },
          {
            "actual": 177,
            "origin_day": 44,
            "predicted": 172,
            "target_day": 48
          },
          {
            "actual": 146,
            "origin_day": 45,
            "predicted": 154,
            "target_day": 49
          },
          {
            "actual": 107,
            "origin_day": 46,
            "predicted": 102,
            "target_day": 50
          },
          {
            "actual": 119,
            "origin_day": 47,
            "predicted": 114,
            "target_day": 51
          },
          {
            "actual": 131,
            "origin_day": 48,
            "predicted": 126,
            "target_day": 52
          },
          {
            "actual": 126,
            "origin_day": 49,
            "predicted": 121,
            "target_day": 53
          }
        ],
        "radius": 8
      },
      {
        "coverage": 8,
        "horizon": 5,
        "mae": 5.375,
        "origins": 8,
        "pairs": [
          {
            "actual": 143,
            "origin_day": 42,
            "predicted": 138,
            "target_day": 47
          },
          {
            "actual": 177,
            "origin_day": 43,
            "predicted": 172,
            "target_day": 48
          },
          {
            "actual": 146,
            "origin_day": 44,
            "predicted": 154,
            "target_day": 49
          },
          {
            "actual": 107,
            "origin_day": 45,
            "predicted": 102,
            "target_day": 50
          },
          {
            "actual": 119,
            "origin_day": 46,
            "predicted": 114,
            "target_day": 51
          },
          {
            "actual": 131,
            "origin_day": 47,
            "predicted": 126,
            "target_day": 52
          },
          {
            "actual": 126,
            "origin_day": 48,
            "predicted": 121,
            "target_day": 53
          },
          {
            "actual": 148,
            "origin_day": 49,
            "predicted": 143,
            "target_day": 54
          }
        ],
        "radius": 8
      },
      {
        "coverage": 8,
        "horizon": 6,
        "mae": 5.375,
        "origins": 8,
        "pairs": [
          {
            "actual": 177,
            "origin_day": 42,
            "predicted": 172,
            "target_day": 48
          },
          {
            "actual": 146,
            "origin_day": 43,
            "predicted": 154,
            "target_day": 49
          },
          {
            "actual": 107,
            "origin_day": 44,
            "predicted": 102,
            "target_day": 50
          },
          {
            "actual": 119,
            "origin_day": 45,
            "predicted": 114,
            "target_day": 51
          },
          {
            "actual": 131,
            "origin_day": 46,
            "predicted": 126,
            "target_day": 52
          },
          {
            "actual": 126,
            "origin_day": 47,
            "predicted": 121,
            "target_day": 53
          },
          {
            "actual": 148,
            "origin_day": 48,
            "predicted": 143,
            "target_day": 54
          },
          {
            "actual": 182,
            "origin_day": 49,
            "predicted": 177,
            "target_day": 55
          }
        ],
        "radius": 8
      },
      {
        "coverage": 8,
        "horizon": 7,
        "mae": 5.375,
        "origins": 8,
        "pairs": [
          {
            "actual": 146,
            "origin_day": 42,
            "predicted": 154,
            "target_day": 49
          },
          {
            "actual": 107,
            "origin_day": 43,
            "predicted": 102,
            "target_day": 50
          },
          {
            "actual": 119,
            "origin_day": 44,
            "predicted": 114,
            "target_day": 51
          },
          {
            "actual": 131,
            "origin_day": 45,
            "predicted": 126,
            "target_day": 52
          },
          {
            "actual": 126,
            "origin_day": 46,
            "predicted": 121,
            "target_day": 53
          },
          {
            "actual": 148,
            "origin_day": 47,
            "predicted": 143,
            "target_day": 54
          },
          {
            "actual": 182,
            "origin_day": 48,
            "predicted": 177,
            "target_day": 55
          },
          {
            "actual": 151,
            "origin_day": 49,
            "predicted": 146,
            "target_day": 56
          }
        ],
        "radius": 8
      }
    ]
  },
  "project": "SignalBench",
  "rows": 56,
  "run_id": "e87d89d47516c96e2f15135798ea595bac4f4b6d856f7f13d5eb2e4e73b2ef26",
  "source_sha256": "f44cb16a48209cfc0ac5209c5e03f7a9db70126b3006eca64f3b6f482de7d60a",
  "version": "signalbench-1.0"
}